PMF Validation

Three pillars tested with partial correlations, mediation analysis, and open-text evidence.

Scorecard

Priorities

% → % completion: low vs high difficulty (n=/) ρ = · partial ρ = · % of blockers

Follow-Through

% → % completion: rare vs frequent overcommit (n=/) ρ = · partial ρ = · % of blockers

Energy

% → % completion: rare vs frequent overwhelm (n=/) ρ = · partial ρ = · % of blockers

Effect Sizes (Forest Plot)

Each dot = mean difference between low (≤2) and high (≥4) groups. Whiskers = 95% bootstrap CI. Green = CI excludes zero.

Market Bridge

Painkiller customers should score worse on pillar indicators if the framework is valid.

1. Priorities

Priority Difficulty × Plan Completion

ρ = · partial ρ = (% retained) · N=

Priority Blockers

of blocker mentions (%)

2. Follow-Through

Overcommit × Plan Completion

ρ = · partial ρ = (% retained) · N=

Strategy Gap: Vitamin vs Painkiller

Where healthy people succeed but struggling people fail → product candidates

Planning Paradox

of active planners (%) replan constantly yet complete little. Not "start planning" but "stop replanning."

External Pressure × Overcommit

ρ = (). People who need external pressure also overcommit more.

3. Energy

Overwhelm × Plan Completion

ρ = · partial ρ = (% retained) · N=

What Drains People

mentions

Mean Overwhelm by Drain Type

Higher = more overwhelmed (1–5) · min N ≥ 3

Integration Wedge

d = ()

Mean overwhelm: with integration pain vs without.

Tool count × overwhelm: ρ =

N=

Tool Count ≠ Overwhelm

Cross-Pillar Analysis

Are the three pillars independent problems, or do they cluster?

Independence (bootstrap 95% CI)

Unique Predictor Contribution

Partial ρ controls for the other two predictors

Pillar Fingerprint by Work Situation

Which roles struggle most with which pillar? Darker = higher score (worse for all except completion where lower = worse). Read columns to see a role's pain profile; read rows to see which roles struggle most with each dimension.

Pillar Fingerprint by Role

Same analysis, but by role (q1_roles multi-select). People appear in every role they hold. Which functional roles struggle most with which pillar?

Who Hurts Most? (by Work Situation)

100% stacked bars sorted by high pain %. Pain score = (5 − productive) + (5 − QoL), range 0–8. High pain ≥ 6.

Who Will Pay

FA + Integration Pain

FA + Failed Strategies

Triple Overlap

Beachhead by Role

Same frustrated-achiever concentration, but by role (q1_roles). People appear in every role they hold. Which functional roles have the most "willing to pay" respondents?

PMF Readiness by Role

Composite score: frustrated achiever % (35%) + tool/system fix demand (25%) + integration pain (25%) + pain intensity (15%). Frustrated achievers = high pain + want an addressable fix. Higher score = more addressable pain for a productivity tool. People with multiple roles appear in each.

What to Build First

Limitations

  • Single-item measures — each predictor is one question, not a validated scale. Partial correlations may overfit.
  • Self-report — common method variance inflates correlations.
  • Correlational — partial correlations and mediation ≠ causation.
  • Convenience sample — not generalizable beyond this sample.
  • Small N for subgroups — frustrated achiever and strategy gap analyses subdivide the sample.
  • LLM extraction — confidence-filtered ≥ 0.5 but not human-verified.

Strengthening: longitudinal data, behavioral tracking, A/B tests, multi-item scales, larger sample.